Monday, June 23, 2014

Building the Melo-drama

The Chicago Bulls would like to get Carmelo Anthony, and they should. Every team should try to get Carmelo. He's one of the best players in the league by any measure, especially as a scorer and rebounder. Because he's been on lousy teams for the past few years, it's easy for many fans to ignore just what a consistently dominant player he has been.

The Bulls also, apparently, have targeted Aaron Afflalo of the Orlando Magic. I'm a bit wary of this. His 18ppg last season looks impressive at first blush, but he was a pure volume scorer and minus defender last year. In fact, last season was the first time in his 7 year career that his PER was above league average, barely making that mark at 16.09. Even more scary, his Real Plus Minus was an atrocious -3.19, good for 75th in the league. For shooting guards.... His one undeniable asset is three point shooting, which he's kept above 40% for most of his career. At 28 years old and on a manageable salary of ~$7.5M per year, I guess you could argue that Thibodeau could turn things around. I'm not at all convinced he's better than Jimmy Butler. In fact, I think they can get a better shooting guard at pick #19 in this draft. Rodney Hood for example.

So here's what I'd like to see, using salary data from HoopsHype.



This starts with using the amnesty provision on Carlos Boozer. Next, salary dump Mike Dunleavy to a team with cap space. For example, a swap of Dunleavy for a second round pick to the Hornets makes sense for both sides. Next, draft an international player with the #16 pick. With news breaking today that Dario Saric will be in Turkey for at least 2 years, he might be available there. That'd be an absolute steal. This would leave Chicago with a total salary commitment of $45,102,652 according to my calculations. This may be off (specifically I don't know how the cap holds for Mirotic and the #16 pick work), but not by more than a few million.

With that remaining cap space, they can sign Melo outright to a near max deal, possibly up to $21.4M in year one. After that, they can use their mid-level exception to bring Mirotic over. Last, they'd need to add a couple veterans at the minimum.

In this scenario, the starting 5 is Noah, Gibson, Anthony, Butler, and Rose. The bench is Mirotic, Snell, Greg Smith, #19 pick, and veteran minimum guys. Obviously starting a 25-year old former MVP, 2 more All-Stars, the runner-up sixth man, and an All-NBA defense player is a good thing. The depth is questionable, and highly dependent on lots of independent factors: Mirotic (or another mid-level guy) producing, Snell developing, the #19 pick being able to contribute, Greg Smith's health (he's a good backup big, especially defensively), and if they can convince Hinrich to take the minimum and stay healthy.



Player2014-15Amnesty BoozerDump Dunleavy, draft int'l player at #16Sign CarmeloAdd Mirotic at Mid-level exception
Derrick Rose$18,862,875$18,862,875$18,862,875$18,862,875$18,862,875
Carlos Boozer$16,800,000$0$0$0$0
Joakim Noah$12,200,000$12,200,000$12,200,000$12,200,000$12,200,000
Taj Gibson$8,000,000$8,000,000$8,000,000$8,000,000$8,000,000
Mike Dunleavy$3,000,000$3,000,000$0$0$0
Tony Snell$1,472,400$1,472,400$1,472,400$1,472,400$1,472,400
Jimmy Butler$2,119,214$2,119,214$2,119,214$2,119,214$2,119,214
Greg Smith$948,163$948,163$948,163$948,163$948,163
#16 pick$1,700,000.00$1,700,000.00$0.00$0.00$0.00
#19 pick$1,500,000.00$1,500,000.00$1,500,000.00$1,500,000.00$1,500,000.00
Carmelo Anthony000$21,397,348$21,397,348
Nikola Mirotic$0$0$0$0$5,100,000
Total$66,602,652$49,802,652$45,102,652$66,500,000$71,600,000
Salary table following the plan outlined above






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